Nigeria losing $15bn yearly to oil theft — Experts

Nigeria is losing an estimated $15 billion annually to oil theft and pipeline vandalism, a new study by Professor Usman Muhammed of Kaduna State University has revealed, raising serious concerns about the long-term sustainability of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda beyond 2027. Speaking at the 1st Citizens Engagement Conference (North-West Edition) in Kaduna, themed “The Positive Impact of Oil and Gas Reforms by President Ahmed Bola Tinubu,” Professor Muhammed said the nation’s oil and gas sector remains its economic backbone, yet poor governance, policy inconsistency, and infrastructural decay continue to limit its full potential.

According to him, Nigeria, despite holding 37 billion barrels of crude oil and 209 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, is still grappling with production inefficiencies and massive fiscal leakages. “Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, the country continues to struggle with declining productivity and weak institutional accountability,” he said. The academic’s report showed that between 2019 and 2024, Nigeria’s crude oil output averaged 1.4 to 1.67 million barrels per day, below its OPEC quota of 1.8 million barrels, while inflation and unemployment soared above 22 percent and 33 percent, respectively.

Professor Muhammed noted that while the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 introduced major reforms, establishing the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the gains are yet to fully manifest due to weak enforcement. “Implementation of the PIA and the commercialization of NNPC have begun to yield modest results, but production efficiency and local content development remain moderate,” he said.

His research further revealed a strong correlation (r = 0.74) between oil production and GDP growth, showing that higher production could significantly boost national income. Regulatory quality and investment inflows, he added, account for over 81 percent of GDP performance variance in the sector. Comparative data presented at the conference placed Nigeria behind its peers in regulatory efficiency, scoring 63 out of 100, compared to Norway’s 92 and the United States’ 90, a gap experts attributed to weak institutional coordination and poor technology adoption. “The twin problems of oil theft and pipeline vandalism have continued to undermine the sector’s growth,” Professor Muhammed warned. “Without decisive measures, Nigeria risks losing the transformative gains envisaged under the Renewed Hope Agenda.” The study recommended digital monitoring of oil production, rehabilitation of pipelines with anti-theft technologies, and increased investment in research and development. It also urged the government to promote local content and economic diversification through gas-based industrial hubs.

Complementing the findings, the Co-convener of the Citizens Engagement Conference, Mallam Nasir AbdulQuadri, called on the federal government to allow private investors to run refineries while focusing solely on regulation. “When we talk about reform in the oil sector, it means the government must take its hands off business,” he said. “Public refineries have failed for decades, but one man’s vision has given us the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery, proof that private ownership works.” AbdulQuadri said deregulation was already yielding positive outcomes and called on Nigerians to remain patient with ongoing reforms. “When we deregulate, we kill corruption. The subsidy era enriched a few individuals at the expense of the nation. Now, the process is open and transparent,” he explained.

He described the conference as an avenue to bridge the information gap between citizens and government, enabling Nigerians to understand ongoing reforms and their long-term benefits. “Many citizens are unaware of the positive changes in the sector, and this ignorance often breeds misinformation,” he added. AbdulQuadri also urged Nigerians to unite behind the reform agenda. “In this country, we don’t have Hausa, Igbo or Yoruba; we don’t have Muslim or Christian, only good and bad people. Good Nigerians must work together against those using tribe and religion to divide us,” he said. Participants at the conference, including industry experts, regulators, and civil society actors, agreed that only policy stability, transparency, and private-sector participation can unlock the full potential of Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. Professor Muhammed concluded that sustainable growth beyond 2027 depends not just on oil output, but on Nigeria’s ability to institutionalize regulatory excellence, diversify its economy, and strengthen public accountability.

Source: https://thenationonlineng.net/nigeria-losing-15bn-yearly-to-oil-theft-experts/

Date: 10Nov25